Energy Forecast

EIA Looks Ahead

By Joel Nelson on May 18, 2024 in Energy

Here’s the latest on our periodic reports on research by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), a statistical and analytical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy that collects, analyzes and disseminates energy information.

Sun is up in forecast

EIA’s short-term energy outlook in January projected that solar electric generation will account for 7% of total U.S. electricity generation in 2025, up from 4% in 2023.

Almost 80 gigawatts of solar power will come online over the next two years, increasing U.S. solar generating capacity by 84% and making solar the leading source of growth in U.S. electricity generation through 2025.

“We are experiencing a significant shift in U.S. electric generation, as solar generation grows rapidly, taking market share from coal and tempering the growth in natural gas usage,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said.

Rising oil production, falling gas prices, declining coal output

The January outlook also forecasts that:

• U.S. crude oil production will establish new records of 13.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and more than 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025. U.S. natural gas production will also establish new records both years.
• Gasoline prices will fall from an average $3.52 per gallon in 2023 to about $3.40 per gallon in 2024 and about $3.20 per gallon in 2025.
• Coal production will drop by 26% over the next two years, reaching 430 million short tons in 2025, its lowest level since the early 1960s.

Renewables seen growing

Electricity generation from renewable sources will likely grow in every region of the U.S. in 2024, with an estimated 36-gigawatt increase in solar generating capacity. U.S. solar generation is expected to rise by 43% and wind generation by 6% this year.

“The mix of energy sources used for generating electricity in the United States is evolving, with a steady shift to renewable energy resources and away from fossil fuels. We expect that solar power will account for the most growth in electricity generation in 2024, driven by a 36-gigawatt increase in solar generating capacity,” the EIA forecast notes.

Emissions sources cancel out

EIA forecasts total U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from coal to offset an increase in such emissions from natural gas in 2024.

Coal-related CO2 emissions are expected to decline by 5% in 2024 because of decreasing coal-fired electricity generation. Natural gas-related CO2 emissions will increase by 2%, driven mostly by increased consumption in the residential and commercial sectors.

“Between 2024 and 2025, we forecast CO2 emissions decrease by 1% as both natural gas and coal-fired generation decline as result of the addition of electricity generating capacity from renewable sources,” EIA says.

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