Yardi Matrix has been honored as a leading real estate analytics provider by Proptech Outlook, an industry publication that annually recognizes companies that are at the forefront of providing real estate analytics solutions and transforming business. In a forthcoming article in the Proptech Outlook magazine, Matrix vice president Jeff Adler dissects the paradigm shifts that have occurred for the real estate industry due to the pandemic and how they may influence ongoing investment. Investors need comprehensive, verified, and reliable data to make decisions that go beyond guesswork, which is why Matrix has so much value for investment professionals. “Essentially, Yardi Matrix’s function is to bring more transparency in formerly opaque markets. We exist to save time and effort for investment professionals while also ensuring that they are making the right bets at the right time,” Adler told Proptech Outlook. Using Matrix, investors can directly get the relevant insights regarding the commercial real estate market and its subsectors, and easily benchmark, predict, and compare the potential value from various investment opportunities in lesser time and with more precision. “Beyond acquisition and underwriting, the insights provided by Yardi Matrix can also be leveraged for brokerage, loan origination, portfolio management and reassessment, and even property development,” observes Proptech Outlook. Matrix clients have been able to achieve significant returns on their investments, aided by analysis based on factors like location, migration patterns, employment and more. Matrix also offers biannual live webinars that help keep industry professionals informed on the latest trends. “As the impediments of the pandemic alleviate further and investment professionals revamp their efforts, we will be ready to equip them with the latest insights regarding the property market to make more accurate investment decisions,” Adler said. Read the interview with Jeff Adler in its entirety on...
Office Outlook
From CommercialEdge
The September jobs report clearly left something to be desired, adding just 194,000 jobs for the month. However, a brighter point is within that number: Nearly half of all of the jobs added in September were in the office-using sector. And, while many more jobs are needed to rebound to pre-pandemic levels, data from the CommercialEdge National Office Report is encouraging. Nationwide, office vacancy rates continued their slow trickle downward, falling 50 basis points (bps) in September to settle at 14.9%. Moreover, vacancy rates are still up 130 bps year-over-year. At the same time, the national average full-service equivalent listing rate for all office space dropped $0.10 over August figures. Even so, it still represents a 1.2% year-over-year increase. Specifically, 18 of the top 25 markets analyzed experience an increase in listing rates. They were led by Los Angeles and the Bay Area, which saw increases of 8.1% and 6.2% year-over-year, respectively, to $41.62 and $55.79. Meanwhile, listing rates in the Indianapolis office space market cooled ever so slightly over August figures, finishing the month at $21.09 — down 0.29% year-over-year. However, as the pandemic wanes and becomes more endemic, there are reasons to be optimistic regarding commercial real estate. In particular, big tech companies have been on a buying spree of large and high-profile office buildings. For instance, Google will exercise its purchase option at Hudson Yards in New York City for $2.1 billion; Apple purchased a trio of buildings in Cupertino, Calif., for $450 million; and Amazon continues construction on its $2.5-billion HQ2 headquarters in Northern Virginia. Notably, part of the motivation for purchasing commercial real estate is also driven by record levels of cash reserves at large technology companies. And, historically low interest rates combined with record profits means that commercial...
Returning to Cities
Will SFR growth stall?
Single-family rentals (SFR) are currently thriving. Last year alone brought $8 billion in new investments, and activity through this year exceeds that pace. Activity is especially rapid around the metros of the southeast and interior U.S. The regions’ low taxes and high land availability attract developers while renters enjoy the low cost of living and a higher quality of life. But can the SFR market growth last as Americans return to the cities from which they fled? What caused the boom in single family rental popularity? The popularity of SFR is threefold. The industry has been steadily gaining momentum since the onset of the Great Recession. Empty nesters composed a significant demographic of early adapters. They aimed to downsize and decrease maintenance without losing the private space they’d grown to love. Millennial families with freelance jobs or with telecommuting options made up the second largest faction of renters in single-family homes. Fast forward about a decade and single-family rentals received another boost in demand. The pandemic served as a catalyst for the recent spike in interest as many Americans opted to leave congested cities for roomier suburbs. Small scale investors made up the bulk of property owners in 2018. By 2020, the landscape began to change. In addition to mom-and-pop operations, builders quickly gained interest in rental assets. Analysts estimated that the pandemic accelerated built-to-rent space by 5 to 7 years. About 10% of SFR are now built-to-rent properties and 12% of current single-family construction is designated for rentals. Trepp reports that 2020 was the most active year for SFR securitizations in U.S. history. New issuance topped $8.3 billion, about a 99% increase from 2019 and a 9% increase from 2018’s previous record-high. Into mid-2021, Trepp recorded $3.1 billion worth of newly securitized SFR...
Renters Still on the Move
Matrix Multifamily Webinar
With the future of office-based employment still in flux for millions of Americans, the multifamily industry continues to see dramatic shifts in where renters are living, as well as rent increases that have yet to be fully factored into the nation’s inflation calculations. Summer and early fall of 2021 saw dramatic increases in multifamily asking rents, a growth trend that Yardi Matrix vice president Jeff Adler called “a barnburner” in this week’s webinar analyzing the sector’s recent performance. However, rent growth is expected to temper in the final months of 2021. “We have really seen a shifting and reallocation of population due to remote work,” Adler stated. “This is the American people solving a (housing) supply problem in the most expensive areas. They are now able to take their paycheck with them and move to less expensive areas.” View the presentation and find slides on yardimatrix.com. At the outset of the presentation, Adler encouraged multifamily investors to develop a strategy that considers the future of office-based employment. Instead of workers going back to the office in droves this fall, the summer Delta variant surge delayed and, in some cases, derailed office reopenings. Some jobs, like financial and government roles, require onsite security and can’t be done remotely. The technology industry is expected to lead fully remote and hybrid opportunities. “Work is now not somewhere you go, but something you do,” Adler said. That ongoing transformation will continue to play out over the next two years. “It’s not going to go back to the way it was, and neither are offices going to be irrelevant.” Economy still in transition phase Meanwhile, the U.S. economy has been struggling to recover from the pandemic. Supply chain issues as well as reduced employment, especially among Americans age 55 and up, are prompting widespread inflation issues that seem likely to persist for the near-term. Yardi Matrix has revised its inflation outlook since the last multifamily webinar was held, Adler noted. And one indicator that inflation may get worse before it gets better is that rent increases are a trailing indicator and have yet to make their way into Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculations. “The Fed (Federal Reserve) story has been that inflation is transitory, but it’s not looking that way to us as an organization,” Adler stated. He noted that had the projections of transitory inflation been accurate, they should have been resolving right about now. Instead, inflation continues to rise. “There is a lot of dry powder in terms of consumer spending. This is a case of too much money facing too few available goods,” Adler explained. Available cash has helped fuel consumer purchases (buoying industrial real estate) and relocations (increased rents in multifamily and high demand for self storage.) “Everything you used to know about inflation has been upended,” Adler said. “I think we will see recovery in services inflation, but an expansion of (cost of) goods inflation. And we haven’t seen the increased rent impacts flow through inflation metrics yet.” High demand for tech hub housing + single family rentals High demand for coveted housing markets, especially in tech hubs like Austin, Denver, Las Vegas, Nashville, Orlando, Phoenix, Raleigh-Durham and Seattle, has driven prices up and availability down in those cities. Meanwhile development is returning and Matrix has revised its anticipated unit delivery target from 350,000 multifamily units per year to 400,000. An especially hot subset of the multifamily market is single family homes that are build-to-rent (BTR), which are driving increase suburbanization of the rental space. Some renters are turning to the BTR option because heightened home prices have put down payments out of reach. BTR homes currently make up 5-10 percent of new home stock, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. And they’re expected to grow dramatically, with $30-40 billion in capital currently designated for the BTR space, Adler said. However, don’t assume that it’s families with kids trading...
Office Outlook
Life Sciences a Bright Point
Lately, most news seems to be centered around when workers will be returning to the office. But, according to the September CommercialEdge National Office Report, the U.S. office real estate market is also warming up again after cooling off of 2020. While August vacancy rates nationwide are still 210 basis points (bps) below their August 2020 levels, they’re also ticking steadily downward, sinking another 10 bps to 15.4% compared to July. Meanwhile, the national average full-service equivalent listing rate for all office space was $38.72 per square foot in August — an increase of 1.2% year-over-year. Even so, seven of the top 25 markets analyzed experienced a contraction in listing rates: Listings in Manhattan and Chicago fell 2.9% and 1.7%, respectively, while Seattle office space vacancy rates notched 6.8% higher — one of the largest year-over-year increases of the markets analyzed. Essentially, the life sciences sector is the only consistent bright point throughout the pandemic. In fact, it’s grown faster in the last 18 months than before the pandemic started. However, more than half of the office space in this sector is concentrated in just four markets: Boston, San Diego, San Francisco and the Bay Area. These markets are prime arenas for the life sciences industry due to the presence of top universities like Stanford, MIT and Harvard that provide not only research opportunities, but also a large talent pool, as well. Furthermore, Boston alone has 7.2 million square feet of lab space under construction, with another 11.6 million square feet currently in the planning and prospective stages — and that doesn’t even include planned conversions. Granted, office construction is slowing across the nation and, although deliveries are holding steady, new starts are slowing down in almost every market. But, Austin, Texas, is a...
Student Housing Stays the Course
Pre-leasing picked up in July and August
As colleges get back to in-person learning this fall, Yardi Matrix reports that the student housing sector is on the rebound. On Wednesday, the Matrix team, led by Matrix vice president Jeff Alder, presented a webinar on the outlooks and tactics for investors as the student housing realm moves past the pandemic. (View the event recording here.) “There was a surge in leasing in July and August,” reported Adler. “Rent growth also moved up. The bulk of properties did extremely well. Overall, the sector has validated its business case.” As colleges and universities announced that they would resume fully in-person classes in the mid to late summer, student housing activity responded in turn. According to Matrix data, this August preleasing for Yardi 200 universities surpassed pre-pandemic levels at 91.1% preleased, while rent growth also had a significant jump at 3.4% year-over-year. One and two bedrooms led the way for rent increases, and studios, while favored at the height of the pandemic, were not as coveted. Three and four-bedroom suites began to rebound near the end of August. U.S. colleges are projected to see an enrollment spike in 2021-2022, following an academic year in which some students opted out of attending due to pandemic restrictions, finances and other factors. Thousands of universities did not require SAT or ACT scores this year, driving a surge in applications and subsequently, higher enrollment. “The bottom line is the schools are open. There may be bumps and problems (with COVID) along the way in terms of the student base. But the schools are opening, housing is happening and beds are getting filled,” Adler summarized. And that’s all good news for student housing. “Overall, we have a very positive outlook for the student housing industry, particularly at first tier institutions,” state Matrix analysts. Much of the presentation focused on the tactical components for investing in student housing, which will be a focus for Matrix moving forward. Adler introduced the sector’s forecast reports for supply and enrollment (both currently available) and rent and occupancy (coming soon). According to a poll of attendees on the webinar, 52 percent of respondents stated they are interested in investing in the sector through acquisitions and 48 percent stated they would invest through developing properties. View the webinar presentation to see all slides and data analysis. Trendlines that Yardi Matrix will continue to monitor into 2022 include: Consolidation of the higher education systemValue proposition of higher education and value of certain majors from specific universitiesDistance learning and the hybrid education modelDemographic trends impacting enrollment Consolidation is expected to be a significant ongoing factor for the industry and reflects the fact that there are fewer Gen Z college attendees than there were in the Millennial generation, Adler explained. States across the country are examining ways to streamline higher education offerings and save overhead costs. “We do expect that enrollment growth will face headwinds. Gen Z is a smaller cohort (of students) than the Millennials were, hence the consolidation expectation,” Adler said. Investors interested in the student housing sector may want to focus their efforts on major schools that are likely to withstand or even benefit from consolidation efforts in the industry, he noted. Learn more about student housing and other markets covered by Yardi...
Self Storage Continues to Soar
Analysts expect another 18-24 months of strong performance
The ongoing strength of the self storage industry continues to impress analysts from Yardi Matrix, the industry’s leading provider of real estate data. They presented a positive outlook for the sector in a webinar held Wednesday, Sept. 1. (View the recording.) Continued migration from all parts of the country is an ongoing positive for the industry. Street rates are up across the board, with all unit sizes, vintages and property ratings experiencing strong increases. Newer facilities and highly rated facilities, however, have seen their rates accelerate faster than competitors. “If people are moving anywhere, that’s a really good thing for self storage,” said Chris Nebenzahl, editorial director for Yardi Matrix. And Americans have been moving a lot recently – a Matrix estimate puts the amount of relocation at 6 years’ worth of moves condensed into a year and a half. But as the pandemic drags on, it has also been possible to pinpoint some of the additional reasons that demand for storage units, especially medium and large units, remains high. They include: As people transitioned to working from home or educating children at home, they used storage to remove furniture from their households to create space for those activities.Demand for socially distanced outdoor activities prompted the need for storage for vehicles like motorcycles, boats and ATVs. (Next year, Matrix will introduce reporting specifically on storage facilities that handle RVs and boats.)Both temporary and permanent moves prompted renters and homeowners to store items while relocating.Business use of storage units to aid with inventory management during a period of disrupted consumer behavior. Gateway markets, which were already seeing outbound migration pre-pandemic, saw the largest gaps between improved self storage performance and struggling performance of multifamily. Between March 2020 and July of 2021, street rates grew 24 percent in Chicago while multifamily rents edged up just one percent. And in Manhattan, street rates were up eight percent while multifamily rents dropped nearly nine percent. As street rates continue to rise month after month, investors and owners are wondering how long these gains can last. In the near term, they show no signs of abating. “The demand is there. We are seeing record growth rates. This is an opportunity for the self storage industry to make hay while the sun shines, but we think this is going to continue for another 18-24 months,” Nebenzahl said. Learn more about the self storage industry’s success in the latest Matrix National Self Storage...
Opportunity Zones
Risk or Potential?
Federal tax reform enacted in December 2017 reduced or eliminated capital gains taxes for investments directed toward multifamily, commercial and self storage real estate located in more than 8,700 low-income “opportunity zones.” This source of capital was expected to seed startups, accelerate business expansions, create jobs, improve housing options and revitalize built environments in areas where about 35 million Americans live. A Yardi Matrix white paper published in 2019 noted that the zones initially appealed to “a new base of largely untapped investors” and offered value-add opportunities in “new markets that were thought to be too small or risky as investment strategies.” Many policymakers touted opportunity zones as a way to create jobs and lift up underserved communities and minority-owned businesses. Critics assert that the program lacks transparency and mostly helps well-heeled investors and developers. A year-and-half since investors joined the program in earnest (many waited until final Treasury Dept. regulations were released in December 2019), has the opportunity zone initiative fulfilled its promise? Expert opinion is split. The White House Council of Economic Advisors, for example, reported in October 2020 that the program had attracted $75 billion in new investments to distressed American communities, $52 billion of which wouldn’t otherwise have entered the zones, and increased private property values within the designated areas by 1.1%. This infusion of capital represented “a powerful vehicle for bringing economic growth and job creation to the American communities that need them most,” holding the potential to “lift at least one million Americans out of poverty [and decrease] the poverty rate in opportunity zones by 11%,” U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development official Denise Cleveland-Leggett said at the time. Michael Novogradac, managing partner of Novogradac, a San Francisco-based professional services organization, says the program “has seen notable...
Rents Rise Nationwide...
New report from Yardi Matrix
Multifamily asking rents jumped an average of 6.3% year-over-year in June, the largest leap ever recorded by Yardi Matrix, a leading industry data tracker. The national average apartment rent increased $23 last month to $1,482, another record, and single-family home rents were up 11% year-over-year. “These are the largest year-over-year and monthly increases in the history of our data set,” said Jeff Adler, vice president of Yardi Matrix. Analysts point to increased household savings and government stimulus funding as factors that have kept the multifamily industry stable during the pandemic period, and now able to rebound as the economy improves. The newly released data is an economic indicator of post-pandemic recovery across the U.S. The largest increases were documented in the lifestyle apartment sector. Renters are also now returning to many gateway markets that saw outbound migration for most of the last year. A supercharged housing market is also pricing out some potential buyers, leading residents to remain in apartments. “Rent growth will not be able to continue at these levels indefinitely, but conditions for above-average growth are likely to persist for months,” Adler said. The increases reflect growth in what landlords are asking for unleased apartments. Renters renewing leases may also be seeing increased rents, but likely at lower levels. Migration is pushing up rents in Southwest and Southeast metros like Phoenix (17.0%), Tampa and California’s Inland Empire (both 15.1%), Las Vegas (14.6%) and Atlanta (13.3%). These metros were lower cost compared to larger gateway metros. Get more insight on the historic report. Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, student housing, industrial, office and self storage property...
Single-Family Rentals Heat Up
Hot Segment Gets Hotter
It’s been a great year for single-family rentals (SFR). Both the institutional single-family rental and build-to-suit segments have performed well despite the challenges of the pandemic. Influences on the single-family rental market One of the first notable booms in SFR followed the Great Recession. Families sought the benefits of homeownership, which include but aren’t limited to space, privacy and land. Simultaneously, they avoided a mortgage crisis and the responsibilities of home maintenance. Fast-forward a little more than a decade and SFR have surged in popularity again. Though there is no strong correlation between population density and viral spread, many Americans fled cities due to COVID-19. They relocated to less populated areas. Families that were priced out of homeownership as well as those who wanted to avoid its responsibilities rented homes in the suburbs and rural areas. The momentum of this trend continues as families savor the benefits of single-family living. Institutions are investing in single-family rentals SFR compose about one-third of the 46 million rental homes in the U.S. Traditionally, the majority of those rentals (nearly 98%) are operated by individuals and small businesses. We are currently witnessing a shift as investors with deeper pockets enter the market. Institutions are heavily investing in SFR. More than $10 billion are scheduled to bolster the segment in the next several years. Industry powerhouses such as Lennar Corp and Greystar Real Estate Partners are investing at least $1 billion each. Newer organizations, such as American Homes 4 Rent and NexMetro are also major players in the built-to-rent sector. Rather than sifting through rental homes scattered throughout communities, renters will be able to enter entire neighborhoods of built-to-rent houses. Such communities compose nearly 12% of current single-family construction. The latest data on single-family rentals Though the pandemic contributed to the growing success of the sector, SFR aren’t a pandemic-dependent trend. Since 2016, SFR rent growth has exceeded that of conventional multifamily rentals. Through mid-year 2021, SFR had improved to 6.4% nationally. Occupancy rates were at 94.3% nationwide. Though rents are performing well overall, secondary and tertiary markets have experienced the greatest growth in the last two years. There are currently more than 12,200 SFR units under construction in 50-plus unit communities. More than two-thirds are being constructed in secondary markets. The remaining are in tertiary markets. Yardi Matrix reports no SFR communities are under construction in gateway metros. The Southwestern region leads in construction with 4,896 units followed closely the Southeast with 3,978. Phoenix is home to the most existing SFR in communities with more than 50 units (about 6,000). It is also where most construction is taking place, a 2,500-unit slice of the 12,200 built nationwide. Jacksonville, Charlotte and Houston each have about 700 units under construction, with Atlanta expecting 544 units. The Midwest pipeline consists of 1,716 units and the West reports 1,522 units. The Northeast lags with 132 units. Single-family rentals demonstrate staying power SFR have been a growing segment of the rental market since 2009. The surge in built-to-rent homes indicate that investors are committed to the benefits that they are receiving. They have the ability to control their brand and the renter experience from start to finish. They can also focus on a large number of holdings in fewer locations. Analysts propose that investors will enjoy improved liquidity, since there are more potential market participants with single-family construction. Download the complete Yardi Matrix single-family rental...
Single Family Rentals...
The latest frontier
Is there a market for renters who want it all? Privacy, outdoor living space, a manicured lawn and financial flexibility are available to renters of single-family homes. Research reveals that interest in single family rentals has been growing since the Great Recession. The pandemic further ignited demand, as demonstrated by a surge in the construction of single-family rentals. As the market develops, specialized technology is necessary for smart growth. Industry powerhouses set their sights on single-family rentals In mid-2020, the first wave of institutional buyers made their mark on the industry. During Q1 2021, they continued the trend by purchasing nearly 55,000 homes, according to Redfin data. Built-to-rent single family homes are also taking off. New York-based Trepp real estate analytics firm reports a 66% increase in single-family homes built to rent. Both homebuilders and apartment companies are entering the market. Builders such as Lennar Corp., the largest homebuilder in the nation by revenue, and multifamily behemoth Greystar Real Estate Partners are investing in single-family houses. Mike Clow, executive director at Greystar, aims to increase investment in the division by a noteworthy 1,566.66% percent by 2026. Operator Invitation Homes announced that it will spend $1 billion in single-family home acquisition in 2021, per an interview with Business Insider. While major players are pumping major dollars into the sector, small landlords still own the majority of single-family rentals. Only about 6% of new homes are built-to-rent. Single-family rental data by Yardi Matrix The demand for single-family rentals is reflected in the strength of rents and occupancy. Yardi Matrix reporting now includes insights into built-to-rent single-family communities. Data is compiled from more than 90,000 units in 700 communities nationwide. Single-family rentals (SFR) thrived during the pandemic. The industry recorded a powerful 7.3% year-over-year (YoY) rent...
Rent Relief Success
Technology delivers aid
Emergency rental assistance funds are helping Connecticut residents maintain housing thanks to a successful launch of the UniteCT program. UniteCT is administered by the State of Connecticut Department of Housing and runs on technology from Yardi called Rent Relief. UniteCT is funded by $420 million in grants for rent and electricity payments for households impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Fifteen state, county and city government agencies use Rent Relief to administer more than $1 billion in emergency rental assistance funds. Over 158,000 users are registered on Rent Relief and have completed more than 57,000 applications. With Yardi Rent Relief, UniteCT accepts applications for assistance from residents and landlords using an online portal that is accessible from computers and mobile devices. The flexibility of Rent Relief paired with the efforts of the UniteCT team delivers assistance in areas that would have been otherwise been underserved. ”The UniteCT bus is an exciting new solution to combat the digital divide in communities who need additional support with technology. We are reimagining the rent relief application process by going to the individual and setting the precedent for other programs to come,” said Marina Marmolejo, program manager. (Bus pictured at right.) The success of Rent Relief’s implementation of UniteCT can be measured by how fast Yardi launched the online application portals and how quickly case review team members became trained to begin vetting fully submitted applications. Other signs of success include how many applicants have used Rent Relief thus far without major interruptions in service. Users created more than 10,000 accounts within the first few days of the applicant portal going live. “We continue to do a lot of multi-media outreach including radio, newspaper articles and social media. We have created sixteen UniteCT Resource Centers throughout the state to...
Recovery Gains
National Multifamily Report
As the U.S. economy continues to show recovery gains, multifamily housing follows suite. Several factors including prevalent industries, vaccination rates and employment create a distinction between markets with rapid growth and lagging gains. Need-to-know data, quick and easy Multifamily rents increased by 2.5% year-over-year (YoY) in May. This nearly reflects rent growth rates of March 2020, before the development of pandemic trends. For the second consecutive month, all top 30 metros showed positive month-over-month (MoM) rent growth. An impressive 90% had MoM gains of 0.5% or more.Rents grew $12 in May to $1,428. That’s the largest one-month increase in Matrix history. The 0.8% MoM growth rate was the largest since June 2015.Rents increased nationally by 0.8% in May. Of our top 30 metros, 22 demonstrated positive YoY rent growth this month. Run, walk, and crawl: metros demonstrate growth at different rates Some rents grow at a sprint. YoY rent growth reached double digits in the Inland Empire for the first time in recorded history. Rent growth in the Inland Empire clocked in at 10.2% followed by at Phoenix 9.6% and Sacramento at 8.3%. Gateway markets have found a comfortable stride. Miami reports a respectable 6.0% growth, the strongest in the region. Others are crawling or have yet to budge, though all signs point to improvements soon. Chicago with 0.0% growth and Los Angeles at -0.1% are still better positioned than San Jose (-9.0%), New York (-8.8%) and San Francisco (-6.7%). Introducing single family rental data Matrix reporting now includes single-family rents within built-to-rent communities. Data is compiled from more than 90,000 units in 700 communities nationwide. Single-family rentals (SFR) thrived during the pandemic. The industry recorded a powerful 7.3% YoY rent growth as of May. This reflects an overall rent increase of about $14...
National Outlook
For Industrial & Office
A new webinar outlined the continued success of the industrial real estate sector and ever-evolving picture for the office market. The May 13 presentation was hosted by Yardi Matrix and CommercialEdge. Insightful detail from the presentation is available on both CRE market segments as well as regional breakdowns. Find the full recording at yardimatrix.com Strong fundamentals continue for industrial Yardi Matrix vice president Jeff Adler had nothing but positives to share about the state of the U.S. industrial sector. Durable fundamentals for both supply and demand indicate that industrial will be a strong investment well into the future. “I’m really not concerned that this is some kind of bubble,” Adler noted, as the available supply and new development of industrial properties can barely keep up with current demand. As a result, rents are performing well, especially in coastal markets, and vacancy rates across the nation are low. E-commerce continues to be a major contributor to industrial’s success, but the backbone of the industry is general goods distribution and small-scale manufacturing. E-commerce won’t have the same double digit increase it did in 2020 due to pandemic activity constraints, but demand is expected to remain consistent. Consumers learned to rely on direct ordering during the pandemic, Adler noted, and can save time by continuing such shopping habits. Major ports and large population centers lead the industrial rent growth list, with California’s Inland Empire in the No. 1 spot and Sacramento at No. 2. But smaller markets have the highest percentages of industrial supply under construction, led by Amarillo, Little Rock and Albuquerque. Nationally, the amount of new industrial space in the pipeline is not expected to disrupt rent gains. Adler anticipates industrial has about three years of runway for its continued strong performance. Yardi Matrix data...
Multifamily Picks Up
According to Yardi Matrix
The multifamily market is rebounding from the pandemic at a rapid clip, and gateway markets are now seeing positive performance indicators for the first time in many months. The latest Yardi Matrix Multifamily National Report has much good news for owners and investors, including a 1.6 percent year-over-year rent bump. “That is the largest increase that we have seen since the beginning of the pandemic,” said Matrix analysts. Overall rents increased by $10 in April to $1,417. The last time overall rents increased by that amount in a month was June 2015. It was also the largest year-over-year jump since March 2020. Out of the top 30 markets Matrix reported on, 24 had month-over-month rent growth greater than 0.5%. Of particular significance were the gains in gateway markets. Miami leads the gateway markets with 0.8% rent growth on a trailing 3-month basis. All other gateways had positive trailing 3-month rent growth, with Chicago (0.5%) and Boston (0.4%) showing strong gains. Washington, D.C. (0.2%), New York, San Francisco and Seattle (all 0.1%) are further back in the recovery process. “We expect the gains in these markets to strengthen as we head into the summer,” states the report. Find more good news and in-depth analysis for multifamily from Yardi Matrix. Yardi Matrix offers the industry’s most comprehensive market intelligence tool for investment professionals, equity investors, lenders and property managers who underwrite and manage investments in commercial real estate. Yardi Matrix covers multifamily, student housing, industrial, office and self storage property types. Email [email protected], call (480) 663-1149 or visit yardimatrix.com to learn...
Apartment Investment
NMHC Research Forum Recap
Jeff Adler, vice president of Yardi Matrix, was recently featured as a guest panelist on an NMHC virtual forum. The April 20 focused on apartment investment, trends and economic factors affecting the industry. Adler appeared alongside Jim Costello, senior vice president at Real Capital Analytics, and Suzanne Mulvee, senior vice president of research and strategy at GID. The conversation was moderated by Dave Borsos, vice president of capital markets at NMHC. Markets like Portland, Oregon have seen an influx of residents as rising single family home sales over the last year. All three industry experts were bullish on the state of the multifamily industry, which is already well on its way to recovery from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. “As it relates to multifamily, it is game on,” said Adler. “(Investors) are out there buying and rents are up. There are pockets of weakness in the urban gateway but if you look south and west, there are a lot of people bidding with a lot of cheap (capital). There are a lot of people moving out of office investments and into industrial and multifamily.” The economy and inflation risk With many Americans flush with cash, both from saving during the pandemic and stimulus funds from the federal government, spending is rampant and economic growth is expected to be around 6.5 percent for 2021, Mulvee noted. But with those conditions comes a concern about potential inflation. “We know we are going to see a period of six months or so of inflationary pressures,” Adler said. “But we hope that in six to nine months, there will be enough deflationary counter pressures that it won’t get out of hand. That in my mind is the bigger issue.” Costello, who writes extensively on market conditions, tempered...
Multifamily Outlook
From Yardi Matrix
The economy is recovering quicky after severe impacts from pandemic shutdowns over the last year. That was the top line good news from Thursday’s webinar on the multifamily industry, presented by Jeff Adler, vice president of Yardi Matrix. The recovery timeline is expected to be around 18 months. “The economy is heating up as the job market strengthens,” said Adler. “A recovery in gross domestic product is clearly under way. I would liken this to a shot out of a cannon.” Inflation is a short-term concern, however. Hear the full analysis and insight in the webinar recording. Rents are on the rise across the country, and that’s a positive indicator for the industry and the economy at large. Multifamily rents increased by 0.6% on a year-over-year basis in March, with the national average rising by $6 to $1,407. Out of 134 markets surveyed, 114 had flat or positive YoY rent growth. Impacts vary, however, across states and cities. Gateway markets like Boston, Chicago, Miami, New York, San Francisco and Washington D.C. appear to have now hit bottom in rents and are positioned for gradual recovery. Leading the way in March’s rent increases were affordable cities and suburbs in the West, with the Inland Empire (8.3%), Sacramento (7.3%) and Phoenix (6.9%) leading national tallies in year-over-year rent growth. “It will take several years for gateway markets to recover, under the best of circumstances,” said Adler. “There has been just as much movement within metro areas at about a 30-40 mile radius. People are moving out of the urban core and into surrounding suburban areas. That’s a meaningful amount that will make coming back to the office problematic, but they aren’t detached from the metro area entirely.” Single family rentals and the build-to-rent sector have also...
NAA Digital Studio
Achieve Stronger NOI in 2021
Do you want to emerge from 2021 with a more efficient, agile and profitable organization? Discover insights to help you reach your goals during the National Apartment Association (NAA) Digital Studio Series! Stronger NOI in 2021 The April NAA Digital Studio, presented by Yardi, is a half-day event including deep dive and interactive sessions, industry panels, networking and more. This month’s theme is “Stronger NOI in 2021: Where do we grow from here?” Experts from leading multifamily companies across the country will discuss the many ways in which COVID-19 has impacted the real estate industry and, more specifically, apartment management. Each session features unique programming that tackles common industry challenges. Through the sessions, you can: Explore market changes and projected financial impacts to help you plan smarter in 2021 and beyond. Gain insights from multifamily leaders who will share new performance metrics they’re using to change the way they do business. Discover ways to improve net operating income beyond rent increases. Featured speakers include guests from Luma Residential, Bell Partners, BH Management Services, Cirrus and more. Industry professionals focused on operations, marketing, technology and related roles will walk away with practical, actionable items to strengthen your organization. Work + play The event kicks off with keynote speaker Jeff Adler, vice president of Yardi Matrix, offering an engaging look at the latest multifamily data. Examine changes in rent growth, occupancy, retention and renter preferences over the last 12 months. Learn how new demographic patterns have affected top and bottom markets. Attendees will also see rent and occupancy forecasts for a variety of property groups. Then, stick around for additional sessions that connect the market update to real-life experiences and plans to protect NOI going forward. End the day with a relaxing musical interlude. Leslie and...
Smooth Sailing for Self Storage
For next 18-24 months
As Americans continue to move about the country in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, they’re often downsizing, temporarily relocating, or electing not to take all of their possessions along with them. The exodus of renters from high priced gateway cities has been beneficial for the self storage market, and Yardi Matrix vice president Jeff Adler is carefully confident that strong demand for storage units will continue for the next 18 to 24 months. “I’m cautiously optimistic, but wouldn’t say wildly optimistic, about the sector near term,” Adler said during a Self Storage National Outlook webinar presented on March 24. The webinar also included an overview of the national economy, potential for inflation, employment trends and other factors. It’s available to view online. For the next few months, renters may be moving back to cities that they left a year ago to resume in-office employment or making final decisions about whether to stay in a new city they tried out while escaping an urban lifestyle in 2020. Those moves will likely impact storage positively. Although vacancy across the country’s largest office markets continues to inch upwards compared to Q1 2020, increases in office sale and rent prices show investors have not lost any confidence in the strength of both traditional and up-and-coming markets. For example, the latest national office market report released by CommercialEdge found that, despite pandemic challenges, Nashville saw a year-over-year increase of nearly 6% in office lease rates, which rested at $31.06 per square foot — coming up closely behind San Diego office space, which averaged $39.44 per square foot, following a modest increase of 0.8% compared to February 2020. Self storage demand could be further bolstered if there is a second wave of moves out of higher-cost real estate markets, Adler shared. Such moves will be contingent on employment trends as the country recovers from the year-long pandemic. So far, migration is flowing from California to states like Colorado, Texas and Arizona, and out of New York to states like Florida and North Carolina. Utah and Idaho are also experiencing a high volume of new residents. “As long as there is movement of people, storage tends to do quite well. Continuing moves would keep the demand for storage high,” Adler said. But at some point, pandemic-influenced demand is expected to subside. National street rates for 10×10 non-climate-controlled (NON-CC) units increased by 2.6% compared to February 2020, and rates for 10×10 climate-controlled (CC) units grew by 3.1% over last year. While street rates nationwide saw substantial growth year-over-year, rates for both unit types remained flat month-over-month. Along with the industrial sector, self storage is a bright spot for real estate investors. Focused on short-term returns, however, they are mainly electing to purchase existing properties rather than sink time into ground-up development. Deal velocity picked up at the end of 2020 and 2021 is expected to be a record year for self storage transactions. “Relative to industrial, which is very pricey, and other asset classes, self storage as an investment class is very attractive and that’s driving a lot of institutional investor interest,” Adler said. Consistent street rate performance and ease of management are both positives for investors. The only downside for some markets is large supply pipelines, which could push down prices as they come online. Nationwide, Yardi Matrix tracks a total of 2,237 self storage properties in various stages of development: 597 under construction, 1,201 planned and 439 prospective properties. The national new-supply pipeline as a percent of existing stock increased 0.1% month-over-month in February, and the share of existing projects in planning or under construction stages accounted for 8.4% of existing inventory. Matrix also maintains operational profiles for 26,534 completed self storage facilities across the United States, bringing the total data set to...
Project Destined
Yardi Matrix Partners
Project Destined is an organization focused on providing education and access to the commercial real estate industry for minority students. Programs are targeted towards high school and college students, with the goal of introducing real estate ownership to people who may not have previously studied or worked in the commercial real estate industry. Yardi Matrix has provided 10 complimentary education licenses to Project Destined for use in their curriculum and internship programs. Students will have full access to Yardi Matrix’ industry-leading data and analysis to use when researching, underwriting and presenting potential deals to their teachers, industry mentors and competition judges. Chris Nebenzahl, editorial director for Yardi Matrix, has been actively involved with Project Destined. “I have been volunteering to teach the market research segment of the curriculum and offer guidance for how students can use Yardi Matrix with the projects they are working on,” said Nebenzahl. “I focus on our data at the property, submarket and market level. The students are tasked with creating an investor presentation and pitching their deal to a panel of industry judges. Through the process, they need to provide valuation models, market research, forecasts, and cash flow models, all of which can be developed and leveraged by using Yardi Matrix data.” Nebenzahl began working with Project Destined in early 2020 and has lectured virtually at each session held by the organization since then. Project Destined was started by entrepreneur Cedric Bobo to expand opportunities for minority students within the commercial real estate field and to encourage his students to become owners and community stakeholders in the cities where they live. Project Destined started 5 years ago and has grown significantly to include students in many major markets around the country. Bobo, who grew up in Memphis, was fascinated...