Last week, Yardi Matrix hosted three webinars that provided insight on how the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the self storage, multifamily and commercial real estate markets. Let’s look at the insight on the commercial market, which is extensive. This post will cover the office market – a follow-up on industrial and retail can be found here. National overview For most sectors of commercial real estate, the next four to eight weeks will be tough. Due to state public health mandates, up to a quarter of the country’s economy has shut down, which will result in double digit GDP drops. The travel, hospitality, and restaurant industries have been the hardest hit, affecting about 30 million people. The United States Department of Labor reported 6.6 million new jobless claims in March. While outlook for Q2 and Q3 is not encouraging for all sectors, a few sectors are functioning if not thriving. Agriculture, industrial, distribution, and construction are among the sectors that are stable or growing during the pandemic. For sectors that are suffering, analysts forecast a dip in economic performance rather than a long-term decline. How much and how broad of a dip is still up for debate. The peak and denouement of the pandemic are uncertain, and business impacts will follow. In response, Congress has passed a $2T CARES Act stimulus package to offset economic decline and aggregate demand. The Federal Reserve rolled out several initiatives for small businesses totaling $350 billion. Large business can take advantage of nearly direct access to federal resources for capital. Efforts to stave off business bankruptcies are accompanied by consumer aid efforts. Though consumer spending is being redirected, it is only moderately reduced. The big question on everyone’s mind: can businesses stay open and recall workers when this is...

The Yardi Matrix research team delivered an insightful presentation on the state of the national self storage market on March 31, with one of the primary themes being the impact that the COVID-19 pandemic may have on the industry. Though the ultimate result of this unprecedented situation will roll out in the coming months across all real estate sectors, early indicators suggest that self storage investments may be equipped to weather the storm, the Matrix team reported. Miss the presentation? No problem, you can find the recording here. Jeff Adler, vice president, Yardi Matrix, delivered the hour-long market summary for a record number of Matrix webinar attendees. “From my perspective, consumer demand for self storage is stable or growing at this point in time,” Adler shared. Residential consumers who wanted to move out of storage to save money would have already done so, he commented. The greater industry risk, Adler noted, is from small retail businesses that may use self storage facilities for inventory storage/warehouses, since brick and mortar retail is extensively affected by nationwide non-essential business shutdowns. The coming weeks and months will reveal just how vulnerable such tenants might be. A key factor to watch when assessing the health of the market is business bankruptcies, shared Adler. If states and metros can bounce back quickly and rehire workers, impact will be lessened. But prolonged shutdowns could lead to greater distress and increased impact for the self storage market. From an investment perspective, major REITs have essentially halted their purchases in the self storage market for the time being, shared Jack Kern, director of institutional research for Yardi Matrix. “Nobody is moving forward (with planned transactions),” said Kern in response to a question asked on the webinar. “This may be an opportunity for...

February was the last month of the record long economic recovery before U.S. office workers were largely asked to work from home, which will likely have long term implications for the national office market, Yardi Matrix reports in this month’s National Office Report. The rapid growth of COVID-19 has made it clear the economy has quickly shifted into contraction mode as the nation reacts to an unprecedented pandemic. “This is a rapidly changing situation with no clear timeframe or conclusion, and as of now it’s unclear how long the shelter-in-place orders, social distancing and moratoriums on public gatherings will last or how deep the economic contraction may become,” states the report. Market experts also suspect that the mandatory work from home restrictions may have long term implications for offices, perhaps changing how feasible and desirable workers view remote work, while potentially having more challenging implications for the coworking industry. Office transactions will likely come to a halt for the time being despite record low interest rates and widening cap rate spreads. For the most part, the office market didn’t enter this situation overbuilt or with loans that are overleveraged. This should help activity resume once the crisis subsides. “Owners may be hesitant to lease space to coworking firms that are themselves dependent on short-term leases. Further, remote workers that had utilized cowork­ing space may find themselves making the home office a permanent one over the next couple of months,” states the report. Yardi Matrix will offer a two upcoming webinars next week on the impact of COVID-19 on the U.S. real estate market. Join the webinar with multifamily focused insight on Wed., April 1 at 10:30am PST. Join the webinar with a commercial real estate focus on Thurs., April 2 at 12:30pm...

Multifamily property performance has been stellar throughout most of the country. There are, however, distinct regional differences in fundamental measures. Savvy investors examine macro and micro economic trends before making investment decisions. Focus areas include rent growth, occupancy trends, supply growth and transaction activity. By understanding those multifamily trends, property managers can optimize property performance and occupancy to satisfy investors. The IMN Property Manager & Operations Forum – Southwest dove into the nuances of real estate data and how it impacts investors’ decisions. On the panel, “Multifamily Investment Trends & Their Impact on Property Managers,” industry experts identified best practices that can help property managers navigate data to their benefit. Chris Nebenzahl, director of institutional research, Yardi Matrix, was one of the experts on the panel. He explored the benefits of monthly national and metro trends reports, such as the reports Yardi Matrix provides for multifamily. Robust reporting provides insights into the industry that can help property managers make informed decisions. Definitely mess with Texas Texas markets, especially the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, are very strong places to invest. Supported by job growth and ample land, these markets are ripe with potential. There is a lot of capital in play throughout the state, even in smaller markets. The rise of popularity has made finding deals increasingly difficult. “The value-add trade is far less lucrative and easy to find than it was earlier in the cycle,” says Nebenzahl. “Yields are compressing making the value add harder to accomplish.” He adds that since valuations are high, the next decade will be focused on operational efficiencies, “Hold periods will likely extend out, and high equity multiples will be less likely. As a result, cash flow, managing expenses and driving revenue as much as possible will be essential for...

Multifamily housing performance has been strong across the U.S. during the current economic cycle, but there are notable regional differences in market health, investor demand and economic growth, says the latest Yardi Matrix regional multifamily report. The report analyzes rent growth, occupancy, supply growth and transaction volume in 130 metros between 2016 and 2019. The strongest performances were delivered by metros in the Southeast, Southwest and Western U.S., while the Northeast and Midwest were slightly behind. Key takeaways from the report: The Southeast, Southwest and Southeast have outperformed in rent growth, employment and transaction volume The West and Southwest have led in rent growth for most of the economic cycle Led by the Northeast, occupancy rates at the end of 2019 were nearly 95 percent in every region except the Southwest The Northeast ($2,066) and West ($1,824) have the highest rents in the nation New investment is highest in the Southeast and West, which accounted for 60 percent of multifamily transaction activity last year “Robust demand to add multi-family properties to portfolios pushed deal flow to an all-time high of $119.5 billion in 2019,” notes the report. Nearly 300,000 multifamily units were delivered last year nationwide. Find all the regional performance insights and learn what’s happening in your region in the Yardi Matrix regional multifamily report.  ...

Yardi Matrix national multifamily report reveals that the southeastern markets continue to demonstrate strength. Not surprisingly, affordability and job opportunities attract renters to the region. Yet as with most of the nation, major metropolitan areas have become less affordable—and therefore less feasible—to most renters. A few surprising suburbs spark renters’ interest instead. Old news, new spin Most people who are priced-out of major markets make their way into the more affordable suburbs. On Seattle-based real estate brokerage Redfin, for example, the most year-over-year pageview increases occurred on cities just outside of major metros. Such suburbs might not offer the trendiest features, but affordability is a major motivator. Renters like to have money left over to enjoy after paying the rent! None of that news is new, exactly. The trend has been gaining traction since the end of 2012. What may be more surprising, however, is that more than half of the nation’s hottest suburbs are in the southeast rather than the go-to coastal cities. Sizzling southern markets Though national data is sending mixed messages on growth, the southeast has performed consistently well. The average U.S. rent declined by $1 in the first month of 2020, ending January at $1,463. This marks the third consecutive month of declining rents. In contrast, year-over-year growth has hovered around 3.0%. More than half of the top 30 markets posted year-over-year rent growth above the national average and, in a rare occurrence, zero major markets reported negative year-over-year rent growth. Just outside of these successful markets, suburbs are thriving, especially in the southeast. Per Redfin year-over-year pageview reports, the following 10 suburbs have experienced the highest interest: Willowsford, Ashburn, VA (Washington, D.C. metro) Bal Harbour, Fort Lauderdale, FL Wildwood, Charlotte, NC West Arvada, CO (Denver metro) Waverly Hills, Arlington,...

The U.S. multifamily market’s consistent performance over the past several years should continue into 2020, according to a new market analysis from Yardi Matrix. That outcome assumes the absence of major shocks to the macro economy or the capital markets such as trade war escalations or slowing growth in Asia and Europe. But for now, prospects remain bright, thanks to steady economic growth in most markets, a healthy job market, low interest rates and an oil glut that has suppressed inflation. “Even if employment were to cool and the economy to face a mild recession, we expect the housing market, and multifamily specifically, to ride through the downturn with relatively little impact,” the report says. Other concerns loom over the market. For example, despite the decade-long economic expansion, homebuilders haven’t kept up with demand, producing a significant housing shortage in many metros. That imbalance and steady rent growth prompted rent control measures in high-cost California, New York and Oregon in 2019. Industry watchers are wary of additional state and municipal legislation intended to promote affordability that could end up dampening development and driving investment to markets with higher growth potential. Yardi Matrix is ready to share insight into factors shaping the U.S. multifamily market including potential military conflicts in the Middle East; the growth of technology and manufacturing in places like Phoenix, Atlanta, Denver, Seattle and Austin, Texas; millennials’ and boomers’ lifestyle preferences; construction labor shortages; the Fed’s actions; and more. Download the new market analysis for winter...

Here are some highlights of the most recent U.S. office property report from Yardi Matrix: Office-using employment increased 1.6% year-over-year in November 2019. The average asking rate increased 2.3% year-over-year that month while the vacancy rate fell 10 basis points to 13.6%. Growth in demand for office space as measured by office-using employment is heavily concentrated in a handful of metros. The top 20 markets tracked by Yardi Matrix accounted for 64% of office-using employment growth from October 2018 to October 2019 but only about 42% of total employment growth. Transactions through November totaled $82.2 billion, on pace to match or exceed the $93 million recorded in 2018. Sixty-seven million square feet of space was delivered year to date through November and another 156 million square feet remains under construction. Learn more about key trends in national supply, demand and sales—along with the factors driving listing rate increases in Brooklyn, N.Y.; and why the office market economies in Nashville, Tenn., and Orlando, Fla., are riding high—in the Yardi Matrix national office report for December...