Jeff Adler and Jack Kern hosted the semi-annual Yardi Matrix webinar on Thursday, November 10th. More than 300 participants dialed in to hear their data-based assessment of the economy and the multifamily market. Our hosts covered a number of topics from the 2016 presidential election, to job growth and economic fundamentals, to specific markets and submarkets primed for growth in the coming years. .Highlights of the webinar included: Economic Fundamentals: The domestic economy continues to grow at a steady pace, creating new jobs at an average rate between 150,000 and 200,000 per month. Recent GDP growth shows signs of strength as output picked up in the third quarter, yet the economy has cooled slightly compared to prior years. Strong employment and modestly rising wages have supported the American consumer, which in turn has helped bolster the economy. Inflation remains tepid although, as Adler mentioned, there are two sides of the inflation equation. Goods inflation has remained flat and even negative at times, while services inflation, specifically education, rent and healthcare, has been rising significantly. The State of the Multifamily Market: New apartment construction has been a major headline throughout 2016 and Yardi Matrix anticipates roughly 350,000 new units to be completed this year. While 2016 will be the largest year for new supply since the Great Recession, Adler noted that the majority of new supply is being built in only 10 markets across the country. As a result, certain high supply markets such as San Francisco, Houston, and Denver have seen rents decelerate throughout the second half of the year, while rent growth remains above 5% in many markets across the country, especially on the west coast. Demand remains strong and Adler indicated that pent up demand, especially among millennials, should provide a consistent...

Orlando—Overdevelopment? Affordability? Rising capitalization rates? An economic downturn? Falling stock market prices? Bring it on, the multifamily market can handle it this year. At least that seemed to be the consensus at the National Multifamily Housing Council’s annual meeting, held this week in Orlando. Panelists at the conference’s Apartment Strategies Outlook event were generally bullish on the outlook for the sector in 2016. “It’s a great time to be in apartments,” is how one panelist summed it up. The litany of positive fundamental drivers are familiar by now: vacancy rates are near historical lows, with demand driven by strong job growth, the growing number of Millennials and the increasing propensity to rent among young and older renters. Rent growth since the last recession has far outpaced long-term average, while properties values have soared. The market is “Awash in Capital.” That punctuation is not a typo, but the title of a panel at the conference. Bob White, president of Real Capital Analytics, released full-year 2014 numbers that showed multifamily sales at a record high, up 32 percent over 2014. Cap rates and cross-border investment are at all-time highs, although White said that prices are plateauing and appreciation is starting to slow. The conditions that produced the influx of capital seem likely to continue into 2016. The U.S. economy, as mediocre as GDP growth might be by historic standards, remains a beacon of stability compared to the struggling economies of Europe and Asia. Not only is that attracting sovereign wealth funds and pension funds from overseas, but there is an influx of high-net-worth investors from China who want to own U.S. real estate, particularly multifamily. That is increasing competition for multifamily assets, not just Class A properties in core markets, but small- and medium-sized properties in...